Jason Kidd has never shown that same promise. He's the sort of coach that turns Jalen Brunson into a Sixth Man of the Year Candidate. His prickly personality aside, Carlisle is a strategic genius whose best trait might be his ability to cultivate bench lineups with untraditional ball-handlers. That might not have been the case under Rick Carlisle. But if he misses 15 or 20 games? Prepare for Dallas to lose most of them. Improve the defense and Doncic is enough to carry a team to 50 wins. Doncic nearly knocked out the Clippers without another ball-handler because the players around him made all of the shots he created for them. We've seen both the benefits and downsides of that strategy. Luka Doncic is the only ball-handler on this team, and Dallas made a calculated decision to prioritize adding role players that he could maximize over a more traditional point guard that could ease his burden. There are two main layers of risk in betting the Dallas over. You're trying to beat the line by a half win here, not blow it away by 10. Deep, defensive-minded teams can still underperform, but they tend to have higher floors. Defense tends to be less reliant on individual players (with a few exceptions). Fewer things can go wrong for deep teams. They aren't always committed to winning that random Tuesday night in Charlotte that might be meaningless to them, but critical to you as a bettor. The regular season is long and never goes as planned. There is no set formula for regular-season winning, but two traits tend to lead to winning over bets: defense and depth.ESPN uses a modified version of Bill James' Pythagorean wins formula from baseball to estimate what a team's record should have been based on their net rating, so that figure (along with an 82-game adjustment) will be listed below as well. There are a number of reasons for this ranging from shooting luck to record in close games, and lest you believe that the latter is something star players can control over a big enough sample, the Cavaliers (six wins above expectation), Magic (seven) and Thunder (10) all won significantly more games last season than their net rating suggests that they should have. Point differential is far more predictive of future performance than record. For that reason, I've not only listed every team's record, but how that record would have translated to an 82-game schedule.
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